Thanks for the comments. Last year I took the opportunity to really try and revise and stabilise my portfolio. I have put in place some self guidance which in part at least explains some of my thinking. I have copied this below.
Ensure market in uptrend.
Buy shares only in upward trend
Set first stop loss at 10% of position and move to BE, then trail
First Loss is Worst Loss
Buy initial stake based on R/RW and scale in on confirmation
Set Target price to Exit
Do not average down
Buy quality and screened or approved shares
Let the price prevail over the story (sell and not hope)
I do not have a normal stake as it were. This very much depends on my view of Conviction (how convinced am I that I am right) and Time Horizon (how long am I expecting this to play out)
If you consider those as the X and Y axis on a graph and plot your shares against that. Things would very much fall somewhere within four quadrants then:
High convicion and long time horizon, high conviciton and short time frame, lower conviction and longer timeframe and lower conviction and longer timeframe.
Accordingly my higher weighted shares are those I have more conviction of (hence GDWN and SPSY for example are conversely smaller positions) and I try and ensure I am up to but would struggle to convince myself to go over 20% of portfolio on any position * this in itself is a tougher rule to maintain hence I work full time too and do pay in all and anything left over into my ISA each month after expenses,mortgage etc. So TWTR I am making a bold stance that this will be a success and the initiatives on the earnings calls will come to fruition. And it will succeed and pay off, but a longer time frame to this. A great co. this is a very long term if not lifetime hold for me. Using my rules above, this was scaled into, buying into price as the price started to go my way from entry, then I begin to get where I want to be, and equally in those first few weeks would also trim back ito a comfortable size and bide my time until I could be sure a direction in the price.
IMB is a stalwart, just sits there and the returns I get in terms of income, is just crazy really. the dividend is then reinvested the same. Why sell. (emotive co I know)
AMC$ (US) is just an out and out punt that a friend and I decided to make. To potentially ride the wave that caught GME. It may not happen and if it crashed by 50% or so it would have little impact and I would exit. But the potential of WSB style gains on this means (although I would not really go anywhere near this) I dipped in for a few, more for a laugh with a mate. Hopefully that doesn’t sound trivial or irresponsible.
BOTB is a sorry story. I held these at about £3 a year or so ago, and remember selling on the train on the way home early into the pandemic thinking people would be losing jobs and cutting discretional spend - seemed rational - Had I kept my original stake this would now be sitting as 30% of my portfolio I estimate. I mean, quite significant money. Easy come, easy go. So I have more recently bought back in on the failed FSP dip, and the post placing. Only 2% as I am less certain * less conviction * about the moat to a business like this (there are many similar style comps out there) but all metrics suggest it is pretty stable and I may again add on continued positive news. I enjoy playing the games and have several times come very close to winning. I always play for a Benz.
HEAD got to 13% as I bought in the lows last year and bought on strength. And the unrealised gains count for a significant part of that figure. This share will unlikely get sold anytime soon. It pays a dividend, is safe and steady, again with improvement initiatives afoot to improve sorryful but steady margins, and has real competitive advantage in its business model. A bit of a Terry Smith situation: buy a good co. don’t over pay, and now do nothing!
SDG I have posted on elsewhere. A good heritage company, new manageement to remove the stale. - on this note I have received an email from the FD on the matters @MaynardPaton raised, so will be good to hear back about the net other income stream noted.
I mentioned FSTA earlier. A good co, one of the better brewers having sold its brewing business. I like the pubs, I like their hotels, and I like their metrics (for their sector they struck me as one of the better run) , we always go to and enjoy their pubs, now I also have a prividge card which will be helpful with pubs reopened.
BOO is at 8%. For me this is high conviction but I am not sure how the short term time frame is likely to pay out, so I am now on the fence: do I increase or will I need to scale back a bit or even downsize come the next announcement. Well this is due soon Q4 5th May, so that will give me some guidance. I no longer have reservation about buying into strengh if announcements justify it. If the outlook improves, and the future earnings propensity improves then why quibble over paying a bit more. And to do so upon knowing the facts seems more prudent than taking the plunge before hand?
Right, that is it for now.I will add some more details another time I am sure. thank you for your time and comments.